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Thursday, October 08th, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

Well, the Braylon Edwards saga is finally over in Cleveland, and bettors are obviously wondering how this impacts them at the sportsbook.

Edwards was shipped to the New York Jets this week on the heels of controversy; he was involved in some sort of fight or fracas at a nightclub and even drew the ire of local hero LeBron James. Given all the issues and headaches over the past few years, Cleveland isn’t going to miss the big wide out much—he’s only caught 10 passes this season—and the package of WR Chansi Stucky, LB Jason Trusnik and two draft picks adds some depth to a pretty bare cupboard in Cleveland.

More importantly, how does the addition impact the Jets, who are 3-1 and quickly establishing themselves as a major surprise team in the AFC? To be honest, probably not much.That probably sounds surprising since we’re talking about a big, strong, former first-round pick. Save for a 1289-yard, 16-touchdown season two years ago, however, Edwards has failed to live up to the hype and he’s indirectly cost people on NFL odds many times.

The Jets’ Mark Sanchez has made an impressive debut this season, and we’re betting management would be thrilled any time it can add a big, sure-handed receiver to help out its rookie starter. Unfortunately, Edwards only has one of those two things covered. The former Michigan Wolverine has a chronic case of the dropsies, something that won’t enamor him to Sanchez or the Jets’ faithful.

There’s no doubt Edwards will make some big plays, especially with the strong-armed Sanchez at the helm. But expecting him to duplicate that magical 2007 season is simply a stretch, at least this season (remember, Edwards is only 26 years old). If there’s an X-factor, it’s that the bitter receiver will be looking to stick it to his former team—and we all saw how that worked out for Brett Favre on Monday—and explodes. That’s unlikely given his slow start and playing with a rookie, but you never know in the NFL.

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Thursday, August 27th, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry
Jamal Williams and the Chargers will bring the "D".

Jamal Williams and the Chargers will bring the

In terms of futility, the AFC West might give the NFC West a run for its money this year. If it weren’t for the talented San Diego Chargers, Commissioner Roger Goodell might have just contracted the whole division.

Even casual followers of NFL odds know San Diego’s story–it’s a very talented team that simply doesn’t come throgh on its potential. Year after year, this squad bows out in the playoffs (or misses the postseason entirely, in some cases). The Chargers are, without a doubt, loaded.

Defensively they can bring the heat, as they may employ the best front seven in the NFL. Notable names include Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams, Shaun Phillips and, of course, Shawne Merriman. The sack machine played just one game last year due to injury, but he’s racked up an impressive 39.5 sacks in just 43 career games. This defense just got a big weapon back.

I like the secondary, too. Quentin Jammer is a very solid veteran, and Antonio Cromartie and Eric Weddle form a talented young duo in the defensive backfield. If you’re online betting and looking for some fierce defense, you can’t go wrong with the Chargers.

Everyone knows about the offense here. The biggest question is will LaDainian Tomlinson bounce back? I think he’s bound for a solid if unspectacular season, of course LDT has set the bar pretty high. Sproles will pick up the slack, which will be rather important–I don’t believe Philip Rivers is a consistent 34-touchdown man a la 2008.

The rest of the West looks like the remnants from my garbage disposal. Oakland is, well, Oakland. I like what Kansas City is doing but this team is a ways away. Lots of young talent, but not nearly enough.

And I’d be remiss if I didn’t quickly mention the Broncos. NFL betting fans are left asking “What the hell happened?” this offseason. I can’t imagine how disheartening it is to be a Denver fan right now. I suppose you can take solace in the fact that this year’s likely poor finish means a top-5 draft pick and a shot to replace Jay Cutler… except your first-round pick belongs to the Seahawks after Denver acquired an extra second rounder to pick CB Alphonso Smith in the ‘09 draft.

If you’re betting online, there’s only one team worth looking at in the West. San Diego or bust.

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

Anthony Gonzalez will help fill Marvin Harrison's shoes.

I really like the Colts’ NFL odds this year. Obviously, it’s tough sledding not only in the conference but their own division. But this offense is going to score. A lot. A looooot. There were a lot of problems that slowed this team down last year, from Peyton Manning missing training camp due to injury, Marvin Harrison falling apart, Joseph Addai letting the team down.

Most of those problems have been rectified. Manning is the kind of guy who relies on preperation and repitition, something he sorely missed during training camp. It cost him during the regular season but, once he found his rythm, he really turned things up a notch. Go ahead. Look it up (alight, I’ll show you: Manning tossed 12 TDs and nine picks over his first eight games. Over the last eight? Fifteen scores and only three picks).

Harrison’s exodus doesn’t concern me at all. Anthony Gonzalez is ready to step up, while Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still in the fold. And it’s not like whoever is behind Gonzo and Wayne is the “third” recievier. Clark and the running backs will get more looks. Speaking of which, the backfield should be much improved with Donald Brown joining the mix and Addai shifting to a shared role, where he’s been very effective before.

Like many online betting fans, I expect the Titans to take a bit of a step back. I don’t expect Collins to duplicate last year’s success (though I love the addition of Nate Washington, which should help). The running game will be vicious again and I’m exicted to see what LeDale White brings to the table after dropping 30 pounds. Still, we always see a few postseason teams of a year ago miss out. I think Tennessee is one of those teams. They’ll get a few less bounces, a few less breaks, and miss out by a nose.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, could sniff a playoff spot. A lot of things have to happen, though. I think Maurice-Jones Drew can carry the load, and the offensive line could be much-improved with the addtion of two strong rookie tackles (at least on the ground. We’ll see how the pass protection goes). David Garrard needs to bounce back, though. On the other side of the ball, second-year defensive ends Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey need to bounce back. They were major busts last year.

Many NFL betting fans expect the Houston Texans to make a push this year. I’m not among them. This team always has a strong second half–well after it’s been eliminated from the playoffs. Until they prove otherwise, the Texans are just another team that can’t get it done until the games don’t matter. If you go with these guys at your sportsbook, you’re either crazy or a blind Texans fan.

Friday, August 21st, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

The Super Bowl Champs’ NFL odds were +1000 this summer, but those numbers could make a chage if Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle injury takes a bad turn. His leg was rolled on at practice the other day and this team can’t afford to lose him for long (though Charlie Batch is a solid back-up). The Steelers are a big threat to win it all again this year, though they have a very tough schedule. This team had a pretty brutal championship hangover a couple of years ago, too.

I expect the Ravens to take a step back. Flacco is still learning on the job and the defense lost a few key parts. I’m pretty excited for the Ray Rice era, however, and this team should have a formidable ground game. There will still be too many questions come NFL week1 odds, however, so I can’t really muster up the courage to place these guys as a Wild Card team.

Should be another dumper year for the Browns and Bengals. Not much to talk about here if you’re an NFL betting fan. I do like Mangini’s long-term prospects, though I’ve heard he’s already rubbing his players the wrong way. Not a good sign.

Like last year, this division comes down to the Steelers and Ravens. Baltimore simply lost too much on defense (coordinator Rex Ryan, linebacker Bart Scott, etc.) and its another year older (see: Ed Reed, Ray Lewis). I have little doubt Pittsburgh will win the North, probably without much trouble. If you make the Steelers your Super Bowl pick I can’t really fault you.

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

Vince Wilfork and the New England Patriots will be a load to handle this year

Let’s not mince words: real, legit NFL betting is around the corner. Let’s spend the next few days breaking down the divisions, starting with the one that’s home to my Super Bowl favorite, the AFC East.

Yes, the Patriots are my Super Bowl pick and yes, I know that’s a little cliche at this point. Remember, though, this is a team that won 11 games with Matt Cassell at the helm. Even with Tom Brady shaking off rust from his knee injury, you can expect the Pats to be pretty potent with the football. I really like their offensive line and receivers. Admittedly, the running back situation looks a little patchwork, but how many teams can you name that have true No. 1 hammers anymore? The committee is the way of the future, so a Morris/Maroney/Taylor/Faulk combination isn’t so bad.

The team has also infused the defense with some much-needed youth. The starting d-line is great (Warren, Wilfork and Seymour) and there’s some talent at linebacker in Mayo and Adalius Thomas. The secondary could be fine-to-great, depending on what Bodden and Meriweather bring to the table, and if Shawn Springs can stay healthy.

I don’t see any real challengers in this division; New England should be the favorite from NFL Week 1 odds to Week 17.. They’ll all offer some close, tight games but none have the steam to take down New England. Miami is headed for a fall–they had one of the weakest schedules in the NFL last year; now they have one of the toughest. The Dolphins are headed in the right direction, but they’re not ready to compete on a regular basis. Ditto for the Jets, who will be starting a rookie at quarterback. Yes, Joe Flacco, yes, Matt Ryan… but those guys are exceptions to the rule.

Buffalo is intriguing, though. They’ve felt close to competing defensively for a few years now, so this could be the season they get over the hump and excel as a unit. The addition of T.O. makes the offense more dangerous. I don’t think Trent Edwards is the big concern here–it’s the offensive line. I really have no faith in them. If that group somehow strings together an Ok season, we’ll see what Buffalo can do on NFL odds.

Either way, if you’re betting online, you’re crazy to go with anyone but New England to win the AFC East. This team is a Super Bowl contender.

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

I’d rather pour boiling hot water into my ear canal than talk about Brett Favre anymore but, well, here we are. NFL betting fans will be interested to know Brett Favre is reportedly going to sign a contract with the Vikings today.

I’m a lifelong Packers fan so, as you can imagine, I’m as sick of this shit as anybody. Favre was one of the reasons I became a Green Bay fan, so it’s truly depressing to see what a sack of selfish shit he’s become. The antics, the waffling, the “revenge” he wants to get on Ted Thompson. Remember how magically the 2007 season ended (note: I have permanently erased the NFC Championship game from memory)? Hard to believe we’ve reached this point. Either way, I’ll refrain from speculating on his legacy for now.

If you’re into betting online, you want to know how this affects NFL odds and the NFC North race. Truth be told, I don’t think it will have a massive impact. Everyone’s first instinct is to say “Gee, Favre is way better than Rosenfels!” True–a few years ago at least. Favre was a nightmare during the second-half of the season. Yes, he was playing with a torn biceps, but the old man wore down noticeably. Before his impressive 2007 resurgence, Favre hired a personal trainer and busted his ass. The following year, between “I Might Retire press conferences”, he simply tossed a football around with a bunch of high school kids. His play subsequently fell off. Coincidence? I think not.

And how has Favre’s most recent offseason gone? Again, he’s done the press conference circuit and severely limited his offseason training routine. How is this guy going to play during the second half of the season? At least he’ll be in a dome for much of the year.

Ultimately, I don’t see NFL betting odds shifting much. The Vikes, Bears and, yes, the Packers, all have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC North crown.

One thing is for sure, though. I’m fucking sick of Favre.

Monday, June 22nd, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

I’ve got a mixed bag of thoughts today, so let’s just plow through it:

  • The US Open is over, and I bet there weren’t many golf betting fans expecting Lucas Glover to win the tourney. Mickelson made things interesting down the stretch, I guess, but it’s hard for me to get too into it unless Tiger is involved. Yeah, I’m a fairweather golf fan, I admit it.
  • Wimbledon odds are under way. Roger Federer won his first match 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 over Yen-hsun Lu. Federer actually fell behind 3-2 early on and he missed on his first four break-point opportunities, but it didn’t take him much longer to get things going and dominating down the stretch. I probably won’t check in with Wimbledon too much, but I will keep an eye out on Federer.
  • Some football news that won’t affect NFL odds but are a bit concerning for me personally: Packers officials are a little bit concerned about the team’s financial situation in the wake of the recession. I’m a Green Bay fan and, for those of you who don’t know, the Packers are a publicly traded team–i.e. it has stockholders versus one owner. The good news is Green Bay made money last year. The bad news is its profits were down $19.4 million from the previous fiscal year. The Pack is especially concerned player costs are growing much faster than revenues (hardcore NFL betting fans are probably aware we’re looking at a work stoppage in a few years), so I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on this situation.
Thursday, February 26th, 2009 | Author: Dirty Harry

Well, looks like Michael Vick is one step closer to returning to the NFL. Since there is no more room in the halfway house, he gets to finish his prison sentence at home. Aww…isn’t that sweet?

Let the online betting begin. Where will he go? There’s plenty of speculation and it won’t be long before every offshore sportsbook has odds on where he’ll go.

While it’s still highly possible that Vick won’t catch on anywhere — think of the heat you’d face from PETA if you traded for him — it’s still fun to imagine where he’d go.

Not knowing who truly wants the dog killer, we at least know who needs him. San Fran was already linked to him. What about Tampa Bay? The Vikings and Lions could certainly use him, not to mention the Favreless Jets now. Vick would look pretty good in a Bears uniform too.

I still wouldn’t bet at the sportsbook on Vick returning at all, but it would give the sports betting landscape an exciting shakeup, wouldn’t it?