The Super Bowl line has been out for a couple of weeks now and we’ve changed our mind…sort of. In Dirty Harry’s Backyard, we usually stick with our guns and that’s what we’re doing here, but we are protecting our investment a little more.

All along, the Indianapolis Colts has been the pick in the Super Bowl. After the NFC Championship Game, where the New Orleans Saints needed five Minnesota Vikings turnovers including a miracle one at the end of regulation to get the win, there was a lot of skepticism as to whether the Saints are capable of even playing with the Colts.

But the casual bettor has to understand that at this level of competition, there isn’t likely to be a blowout. Both teams are good and both teams will be prepared.

The Saints have had an extra week to prepare and you can’t discount the bye week. We see some of the worst teams in the NFL put up their best performances of the year after a bye, which means that the Saints and Colts will know each other inside out after two weeks of preparation.

At the end of the day, though, the Colts will win this game. While they might not win by four or five or six, they will win. That’s why we’ve changed the pick from Colts -5.5 to just Colts -220 outright. They win and so do we.

Pick: Colts -220

Dirty Harry is ready to do some Super Bowl betting, and the matchup between Indianapolis and New Orleans has the potential to be a shootout, led by the teams’ potent pivots. Here’s a look at the combatants.

Saints vs Colts betting – Sunday, February 7, 6:20 PM ET

The Saints are powered by Drew Brees, the small but deadly accurate quarterback who made the Saints the No.1 offense in the league in the regular season. However, they had problems moving the ball against Minnesota in the second half of the NFC championship, and only five turnovers from the Vikings kept them in the game.

The Colts are led by four-time MVP Peyton Manning, who was also the Super Bowl MVP in the Colts’ win four years ago. Manning showed all of his talents in the AFC championship game, shaking off a slow start to led Indy to the last 24 points of the game.

Indy is a 5.5-point favorite in this contest, and their defense has the speed to keep up with the Saints, especially in the front seven. The secondary sometimes gives up big plays, and the Saints have plenty of playmakers, but Indy has the discipline to not let them run wild. Look for another Super Bowl MVP for Manning, as well.

Superbowl odds picks: Colts -5.5

Super Bowl odds have Indianapolis as the favorites to win it all, while the New York Jets are the longshots. These two will meet in Sunday’s AFC championship game, and the Colts will have a gameplan to slow down the Jets.

The Colts are a 7.5-point favorite at home in this contest, and they’ll use the same gameplan that they used against Baltimore in their 20-3 win: stack the line. They refused to let running back Ray Rice beat them, and the Jets had 169 yards on the ground in their 17-14 upset win in San Diego. The Colts will put eight, maybe nine, players in the box and dare rookie Mark Sanchez to air it out. Sanchez had 20 picks in the regular season, including four games of three or more, and if the Jets have to air it out, they’re in trouble. Offensively, Peyton Manning has had success against New York coach Rex Ryan’s defenses when he was in Baltimore, and they’ll be tough, but the Indy offense has enough weapons to combat the Jets, particularly tight end Dallas Clark. Antonio Gates had a big day for San Diego, and the Colts will look at how the Chargers utilized him.

Bookmaker odds (bookmaker reviews) pick: Colts -7.5

Super Bowl XLIII betting players will never forget this amazing play from last year’s game:

Now, who will be this year’s David Tyree? The easy answer is Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, who already owns the record for most receiving yards in a postseason, and there is still one game left. Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward is another candidate, but he is a bit banged up. So, DH is counting on the Cardinals’ Steve Breaston and the Steelers’ Limas Sweed to make a big play for their teams. Breaston, a second-year player, has stepped up this season to make Anquan Boldin expendable, while Sweed is a rookie who would love nothing more than to make amends for the open pass he dropped in Pittsburgh 23-14 win over Baltimore that would have surely went for a touchdown. Of course, he tried to make up for it on the very next play:

Watch out for these young guns. You never know, they could play a massive part in the Super Bowl XLIII betting outcome.

Super Bowl XLIII betting odds are favoring the Steelers on February 1st, and their history in the “Big Game” shows why Pittsburgh fans are looking for another title. The Steelers are 5-1 in six Super Bowl appearances, and one more will put them in first place for most Super Bowl wins in the NFL’s history, breaking a tie with San Francisco and Dallas.

Players who will be looking at Pittsburgh Steelers odds will be focusing on their No.1-ranked defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, while Troy Polamalu has become more than a run-stopper, posting a career-high seven picks during the regular season.

However, if the Steelers want to taste victory, they will need a sterling performance from Ben Roethlisberger, who hasn’t been picked off yet during the Steelers’ two playoff games. A turnover-free Roethlisberger usually leads to a Pittsburgh victory, and he will need to be on point against an Arizona offense that has been very opportunistic during their amazing postseason run. Super Bowl betting history shows the favorites usually come up big, but the Steelers better not underestimate Arizona.

DH thinks he’s woken up in some kind of alternate universe. Seeing Arizona in the Super Bowl XLIII odds is kind of…..well, earth-shattering (DH was going to put $20 on the Cardinals at the beginning of the year, and didn’t, but that’s for another day).

Super Bowl XLIII Betting has the Cardinals as 7-point underdogs to win the NFC’s second straight Super Bowl, but they will be making their first-ever appearance in the “Big Game”, as opposed to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 5-1 in their six Super Bowl appearances. Most of the Cardinals have never been here, but in Kurt Warner, they have a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, and he proved with a brilliant line in their 32-25 win over Philadelphia in the NFC title game that he can rise to the occasion. But they have to be worried about Anquan Boldin’ s argument with offensive coordinator Todd Haley late in the Philadelphia game, and having a bitter Boldin could throw an unwanted wrench into the Cardinals’ Super Bowl XLIII odds.