Jamal Williams and the Chargers will bring the

In terms of futility, the AFC West might give the NFC West a run for its money this year. If it weren’t for the talented San Diego Chargers, Commissioner Roger Goodell might have just contracted the whole division.

Even casual followers of NFL odds know San Diego’s story–it’s a very talented team that simply doesn’t come throgh on its potential. Year after year, this squad bows out in the playoffs (or misses the postseason entirely, in some cases). The Chargers are, without a doubt, loaded.

Defensively they can bring the heat, as they may employ the best front seven in the NFL. Notable names include Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams, Shaun Phillips and, of course, Shawne Merriman. The sack machine played just one game last year due to injury, but he’s racked up an impressive 39.5 sacks in just 43 career games. This defense just got a big weapon back.

I like the secondary, too. Quentin Jammer is a very solid veteran, and Antonio Cromartie and Eric Weddle form a talented young duo in the defensive backfield. If you’re online betting and looking for some fierce defense, you can’t go wrong with the Chargers.

Everyone knows about the offense here. The biggest question is will LaDainian Tomlinson bounce back? I think he’s bound for a solid if unspectacular season, of course LDT has set the bar pretty high. Sproles will pick up the slack, which will be rather important–I don’t believe Philip Rivers is a consistent 34-touchdown man a la 2008.

The rest of the West looks like the remnants from my garbage disposal. Oakland is, well, Oakland. I like what Kansas City is doing but this team is a ways away. Lots of young talent, but not nearly enough.

And I’d be remiss if I didn’t quickly mention the Broncos. NFL betting fans are left asking “What the hell happened?” this offseason. I can’t imagine how disheartening it is to be a Denver fan right now. I suppose you can take solace in the fact that this year’s likely poor finish means a top-5 draft pick and a shot to replace Jay Cutler… except your first-round pick belongs to the Seahawks after Denver acquired an extra second rounder to pick CB Alphonso Smith in the ‘09 draft.

If you’re betting online, there’s only one team worth looking at in the West. San Diego or bust.

Anthony Gonzalez will help fill Marvin Harrison's shoes.

I really like the Colts’ NFL odds this year. Obviously, it’s tough sledding not only in the conference but their own division. But this offense is going to score. A lot. A looooot. There were a lot of problems that slowed this team down last year, from Peyton Manning missing training camp due to injury, Marvin Harrison falling apart, Joseph Addai letting the team down.

Most of those problems have been rectified. Manning is the kind of guy who relies on preperation and repitition, something he sorely missed during training camp. It cost him during the regular season but, once he found his rythm, he really turned things up a notch. Go ahead. Look it up (alight, I’ll show you: Manning tossed 12 TDs and nine picks over his first eight games. Over the last eight? Fifteen scores and only three picks).

Harrison’s exodus doesn’t concern me at all. Anthony Gonzalez is ready to step up, while Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are still in the fold. And it’s not like whoever is behind Gonzo and Wayne is the “third” recievier. Clark and the running backs will get more looks. Speaking of which, the backfield should be much improved with Donald Brown joining the mix and Addai shifting to a shared role, where he’s been very effective before.

Like many online betting fans, I expect the Titans to take a bit of a step back. I don’t expect Collins to duplicate last year’s success (though I love the addition of Nate Washington, which should help). The running game will be vicious again and I’m exicted to see what LeDale White brings to the table after dropping 30 pounds. Still, we always see a few postseason teams of a year ago miss out. I think Tennessee is one of those teams. They’ll get a few less bounces, a few less breaks, and miss out by a nose.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, could sniff a playoff spot. A lot of things have to happen, though. I think Maurice-Jones Drew can carry the load, and the offensive line could be much-improved with the addtion of two strong rookie tackles (at least on the ground. We’ll see how the pass protection goes). David Garrard needs to bounce back, though. On the other side of the ball, second-year defensive ends Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey need to bounce back. They were major busts last year.

Many NFL betting fans expect the Houston Texans to make a push this year. I’m not among them. This team always has a strong second half–well after it’s been eliminated from the playoffs. Until they prove otherwise, the Texans are just another team that can’t get it done until the games don’t matter. If you go with these guys at your sportsbook, you’re either crazy or a blind Texans fan.

The Super Bowl Champs’ NFL odds were +1000 this summer, but those numbers could make a chage if Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle injury takes a bad turn. His leg was rolled on at practice the other day and this team can’t afford to lose him for long (though Charlie Batch is a solid back-up). The Steelers are a big threat to win it all again this year, though they have a very tough schedule. This team had a pretty brutal championship hangover a couple of years ago, too.

I expect the Ravens to take a step back. Flacco is still learning on the job and the defense lost a few key parts. I’m pretty excited for the Ray Rice era, however, and this team should have a formidable ground game. There will still be too many questions come NFL week1 odds, however, so I can’t really muster up the courage to place these guys as a Wild Card team.

Should be another dumper year for the Browns and Bengals. Not much to talk about here if you’re an NFL betting fan. I do like Mangini’s long-term prospects, though I’ve heard he’s already rubbing his players the wrong way. Not a good sign.

Like last year, this division comes down to the Steelers and Ravens. Baltimore simply lost too much on defense (coordinator Rex Ryan, linebacker Bart Scott, etc.) and its another year older (see: Ed Reed, Ray Lewis). I have little doubt Pittsburgh will win the North, probably without much trouble. If you make the Steelers your Super Bowl pick I can’t really fault you.

Vince Wilfork and the New England Patriots will be a load to handle this year

Let’s not mince words: real, legit NFL betting is around the corner. Let’s spend the next few days breaking down the divisions, starting with the one that’s home to my Super Bowl favorite, the AFC East.

Yes, the Patriots are my Super Bowl pick and yes, I know that’s a little cliche at this point. Remember, though, this is a team that won 11 games with Matt Cassell at the helm. Even with Tom Brady shaking off rust from his knee injury, you can expect the Pats to be pretty potent with the football. I really like their offensive line and receivers. Admittedly, the running back situation looks a little patchwork, but how many teams can you name that have true No. 1 hammers anymore? The committee is the way of the future, so a Morris/Maroney/Taylor/Faulk combination isn’t so bad.

The team has also infused the defense with some much-needed youth. The starting d-line is great (Warren, Wilfork and Seymour) and there’s some talent at linebacker in Mayo and Adalius Thomas. The secondary could be fine-to-great, depending on what Bodden and Meriweather bring to the table, and if Shawn Springs can stay healthy.

I don’t see any real challengers in this division; New England should be the favorite from NFL Week 1 odds to Week 17.. They’ll all offer some close, tight games but none have the steam to take down New England. Miami is headed for a fall–they had one of the weakest schedules in the NFL last year; now they have one of the toughest. The Dolphins are headed in the right direction, but they’re not ready to compete on a regular basis. Ditto for the Jets, who will be starting a rookie at quarterback. Yes, Joe Flacco, yes, Matt Ryan… but those guys are exceptions to the rule.

Buffalo is intriguing, though. They’ve felt close to competing defensively for a few years now, so this could be the season they get over the hump and excel as a unit. The addition of T.O. makes the offense more dangerous. I don’t think Trent Edwards is the big concern here–it’s the offensive line. I really have no faith in them. If that group somehow strings together an Ok season, we’ll see what Buffalo can do on NFL odds.

Either way, if you’re betting online, you’re crazy to go with anyone but New England to win the AFC East. This team is a Super Bowl contender.

I’d rather pour boiling hot water into my ear canal than talk about Brett Favre anymore but, well, here we are. NFL betting fans will be interested to know Brett Favre is reportedly going to sign a contract with the Vikings today.

I’m a lifelong Packers fan so, as you can imagine, I’m as sick of this shit as anybody. Favre was one of the reasons I became a Green Bay fan, so it’s truly depressing to see what a sack of selfish shit he’s become. The antics, the waffling, the “revenge” he wants to get on Ted Thompson. Remember how magically the 2007 season ended (note: I have permanently erased the NFC Championship game from memory)? Hard to believe we’ve reached this point. Either way, I’ll refrain from speculating on his legacy for now.

If you’re into betting online, you want to know how this affects NFL odds and the NFC North race. Truth be told, I don’t think it will have a massive impact. Everyone’s first instinct is to say “Gee, Favre is way better than Rosenfels!” True–a few years ago at least. Favre was a nightmare during the second-half of the season. Yes, he was playing with a torn biceps, but the old man wore down noticeably. Before his impressive 2007 resurgence, Favre hired a personal trainer and busted his ass. The following year, between “I Might Retire press conferences”, he simply tossed a football around with a bunch of high school kids. His play subsequently fell off. Coincidence? I think not.

And how has Favre’s most recent offseason gone? Again, he’s done the press conference circuit and severely limited his offseason training routine. How is this guy going to play during the second half of the season? At least he’ll be in a dome for much of the year.

Ultimately, I don’t see NFL betting odds shifting much. The Vikes, Bears and, yes, the Packers, all have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC North crown.

One thing is for sure, though. I’m fucking sick of Favre.

Jesus. It’s been three weeks since my last post. I won’t bore you with the details, but just take my advice and NEVER buy “Advil” from a Panamean hooker; there’s a good chance you’ll wake up with no money and 2000 miles from home.

Anyway, I’d like to quickly run through a few betting thoughts that ought to cover the past 20 days or so I’ve missed:

- JP Ricciardisucks

- Thank God the NFL is back

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up, right? Thanks to JP I’m probably done giving a damn about MLB odds until October rolls around. No reason to fret, though, as NFL Week 1 odds are already posted! I missed you, NFL… don’t ever leave me again.

Alright, all this typing has worn me out (come on, it’s been three weeks!). Let’s rest up and talk some pigskin tomorrow (but, uh no promises… it’s Friday).